Qiaqia Foods (002557) 2019 Performance Preview Comment: Performance Exceeds Expectations
Matters: The company released a performance report, which is expected to achieve revenue of 48 in 2019.
3.7 billion, an increase of 15.
3%, net profit attributable to mother 6.
02 trillion, with an increase of 39.
1%, of which 19Q4 earned 16.
180,000 yuan, an increase of 25.
7%, net profit attributable to mother 2.
02 trillion, the same increase of 55.
4%, performance exceeded market expectations.
Comment: The initial income is accelerating quarter by quarter, and the business goals are well completed.
The company’s Q4 revenue increased by 25.
7%, the revenue is increasing quarter by quarter, gradually achieving various single product business goals is expected to be well completed, the company’s red bag series in the second half of the year will increase the development of blank markets and strengthen marketing efforts, such as the introduction of melon seed mask to achieve cross-border marketing, expected to remain highThe number is increasing; Blue bags are expected to achieve the initial sales target of 900 million, of which pecans and caramel series have maintained a good growth momentum, sea melon seeds have better sales feedback, and new products have gradually contributed to the increase; yellow bags continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and replacementNew packaging, highlighting core fresh-keeping technology, gradually forming differentiated product cognition, and expanding promotion efforts in key offline cities. It is expected to achieve sales targets of 800-900 million US dollars, maintain rapid growth, and basically achieve the first strategic plan of offline integrated channels.
The profitability of Q4 continued to improve, and gradually realized the flexibility.
The company’s estimated net profit margin for 2019 is 12.
4%, an increase of 2 per year.
1pcts, 19Q4 net profit 12.
5%, an increase of 2 per year.
4pcts, profitability continued to improve.
It is estimated that: 1) The product structure continues to improve.
Blue bag products with high gross profit margin have maintained steady growth since its introduction, and the proportion of melon seeds has continued to increase, improving the gross profit margin of melon seeds. 2) The level of automation has been improved to improve the net profit of yellow bags.
The company’s nut packaging automation level has gradually increased, and the proportion of labor costs has decreased. New flavored nut products have been listed on the market. The gross profit margin is expected to continue to improve. The net profit margin of yellow bag products is expected to reach 2-3%.
In our opinion, the structure of the seeds and nuts category will continue to be upgraded gradually. Although the short-term marketing investment will continue to expand, it is expected that the overall profit level will continue to maintain a steady and rising.
The impact of the short-term epidemic is expected to be limited, and employee shareholding will continue to be promoted.
Combining with the channel survey feedback, the company delivered goods well before the holiday, the terminal was selling well, and some terminals were out of stock.
At present, the company has resumed work, and the short-term improvement of logistics supply is expected to improve gradually. The impact of the epidemic situation on the company is expected to be about 50 million yuan. Considering the base replacement in the same period last year, it is expected that the revenue of Q1 company will still maintain a numerical growth.Accelerating the pace to catch up, the expected growth can still achieve a steady two numerical growth.
In addition, the company continued to promote the repurchase and employee shareholding plans. As of the end of January, the company had repurchased 1.23 million shares, and it is expected that no more than 50% will be used to promote the employee shareholding plan, and the remaining part will be promoted by the issuance of convertible bonds.
In recent years, the company’s business has continued to focus, actively stimulate the vitality of the organization, enhance the enthusiasm of employees, and keep the momentum of development.
Investment suggestion: The company’s performance in 2019 is better than expected, the operating momentum remains good, and the short-term production and operation are relatively limited by the epidemic situation. It is expected that this year will continue to maintain a solid growth plan, a clear strategy for single product strategy, and a steady and rising profit level.
We raise the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 1.
69 yuan (the original predictor 1).
50 yuan), corresponding to PE of 34/29/24 times. Considering that 四川耍耍网 the company’s operating momentum has continued to improve in recent years, and the potential for performance flexibility is sufficient, it is estimated that the center has significantly moved up. Given this year’s 35X target PE, raise the 6-month target price to 50 yuan.Maintain the “strong push” level.
Risk Warning: The epidemic situation is worse than expected, and the daily competition in the nut market is intensifying.