Tongwei (600438) 2020-2023 development plan review: 2020-2023 development plan release gradually starts with battery leader

Tongwei (600438) 2020-2023 development plan review: 2020-2023 development plan release gradually starts with battery leader
Event: The company released 2020-2023 development plan for high-purity crystalline silicon and solar cell business On February 11, 2020, the company released the 2020-2023 development plan for high-purity crystalline silicon and solar cell business, with a cumulative production capacity of 22-29 million by 2023Ton, production cost target is 3-4 tons / ton, cash cost target is 2-3 tons / ton; cumulative capacity of solar cells reaches 20-100GW by 2023, non-silicon cost target of PERC battery is 0.Below 18 yuan / watt. Expansion of production and speed, the company’s expansion and battery leader further strengthened the company’s overall expectations and the battery chip double leader, with 8 sets of high-purity crystalline silicon, 20GW high-efficiency solar cell capacity, scale, quality, cost, efficiency, leading the world.The business development planning goals are clear (capacity, technology, cost) and the rhythm is reasonable. In the future, the company’s leader will continue to be consolidated. Leadership expansion + gradual release of capacity to withdraw, expansion of the competitive landscape continues to improve. The company is a gradual leader in terms of production capacity, cost, and single crystal material industry-leading share of 85%.The company plans to reach a cumulative production capacity of 2021-2023, respectively.5-15, 15-22, 22-29, will widen the scale gap with the remaining echelon manufacturers.In line with the company’s cost advantage, the leader level is unshakable.At the same time, the industry’s backward production capacity, including traditional overseas replacement leaders such as OCI and WACKER, is constantly withdrawing, and the transition competition pattern is continuously improving. The expansion of cell scale advantages has a profound impact on the industry. The company’s cell capacity and cost are leading the industry, and the expansion will also have a profound impact on the industry.The company’s new investment in cell capacity is fully compatible with 210 and below sizes, and the industry trend of 210 silicon wafers has begun to transform, benefiting the underlying Zhonghuan shares (silicon leader, 210 exclusive sizes).In addition to PERC, the battery technology line also focuses on new technologies such as PERC +, TOPCon, and HJT.TOPCon technology has begun to be recognized by battery faucets, benefiting the underlying Chinese company (TOPCon faucets).The company’s new production will be mainly domestic equipment, step into shares, Jiejia Weichuang and other domestic battery equipment leaders will also fully benefit. Maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating to ensure that the company and the battery sheet leader are further stable. The company’s profitability has been further improved by stabilizing product prices and reducing costs brought about by the launch of new capacity.We 淡水桑拿网 expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 28.67, 35.44, 46.74 trillion, corresponding to EPS are 0.74, 0.91, 1.20 yuan.Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: PV demand is less than expected, product prices fall more than expected