Tianshun Wind Energy (002531): Wind Tower Faucets Increase in Profit

Tianshun Wind Energy (002531): Wind Tower Faucets Increase in Profit

Benefiting from the wind energy price rush to install, the industry bidding volume rose.

Under the influence of the policy of the National Development and Reform Commission’s “Notice on Improving Wind Power On-grid Tariff Policy”, the wind power industry has entered a rush-installation period.

The industry’s bidding installed capacity has gradually increased since Q4 of 18, and the bidding installed capacity reached 33 in 18 years.

5GW, compared to 27 in 17 years.

2GW installed capacity increased by 6.

3GW.

19 H1 installed capacity reached 32.

3GW, almost reached the level of 18 years, of which 19Q2 installed capacity reached 17.

4GW, an increase of 16 from Q1 in 19Q.

8%, an increase of 87 in the second quarter of 2018.

1%, a new high.

The company’s core business is sales of wind towers, and the unit price of wind tower sales is on the rise.

Revenue from the wind tower segment was 30 in 2018.

6 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

6%, sales 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 were 38 inches, unchanged from 17 years, and 19H1 reached 20.

4 samples, compared to 16 in 18H1.

7 obviously increased significantly; the unit price of wind tower in 17 years corresponds to 7,180.

7 yuan / ton, 18H1, 18H2, 19H1 are 7849 respectively.

5 yuan / ton, 8193.

7 yuan / ton, 9200.

2 yuan / ton, a clear upward trend.

We believe that the increase in unit price may be due to the strong demand in the industry and the increase in wind turbine power requirements for wind towers.

The proportion of gross profit margin and overseas income, steel price fluctuations have a reset correlation.

We compared Daikin Heavy Industry, Tianshun Wind Energy and Taisheng Wind Energy with three wind tower sellers. In terms of the gross profit margin of the tower, Tianshun Wind Energy and Taisheng Wind Energy are relatively 无锡桑拿网 close, which is significantly higher than Daikin Heavy Industry.

Calculating the sales price of the wind tower, the sales price of the wind tower of Tianshun and Taisheng in 18 years was 8043.

1 yuan / ton and 7676.

6 yuan / ton, higher than 7115 of Daikin Heavy Industries.

2 yuan / ton.

The average gross profit margin of the overseas wind tower business of the three companies is higher than that of domestic wind tower business, while Tianshun and Taisheng’s overseas revenue accounted for 38 in 18 years.

4% and 43.

6%, higher than 24 of Daikin Heavy Industries.

3%, which raised the gross profit margin of some companies’ wind towers.

The impact of steel price fluctuations exceeded the operating cost of Tianshun Wind Energy. Taking 18 years as an example, the cost of raw materials for wind towers was 21.

0 billion, accounting for 87% of the operating costs of wind towers.

7%.

In order to understand the relationship between the company’s gross profit margin and the steel price trend, we used the Pearson correlation coefficient index to back-test the correlation between the company’s gross profit margin and steel price (medium plate 20).There is a negative correlation with the overall steel price. The gross profit margin lags slightly behind the steel price. The correlation is the strongest for 1-3 quarters, and the correlation coefficient lags for 2 quarters reaches -0.

68.

The company’s power station operation business provides stable profits: as of 19H1, the company’s grid-connected revenue has reached about 530MW of installed capacity, and 199MW of projects in hand have been approved.In August 19, following the commissioning of the 150MW project in Heze City, the company’s grid-connected capacity reached 680MW.

In the first half of 19, the company realized income from power generation of RMB2.

800 million, net profit1.

300 million.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2019-2021 will be 8.

00, 10.

07, 11.

300,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

45 yuan, 0.

57 yuan, 0.

63 yuan.

With reference to a comparable company’s assessment, the company will be given a PE 20-25X in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 9.

00-11.

25 yuan, maintain the “primary market” rating.

risk warning.

Wind power installed capacity was lower than expected; competition intensified, gross profit margin increased; and risks of policy changes.