How to deal with the double blow of oil price in the epidemic: Fed may lower interest rate by zero?

How to deal with the double blow of oil price in the epidemic: Fed may lower interest rate by zero?
The global spread of the epidemic spreads the crude oil “Black Swan”. On March 9, the global market suffered a black Monday. US stocks were suddenly melted and global stock markets plunged.Behind the sharp fluctuations in the stock market is a global panic. This new coronary pneumonia epidemic has already affected the global market. Is the sharp drop in oil prices even worse?Is the global financial crisis coming again?Judging from the interviews of Sauna and Yewang, there has been no precedent in the history of the global economic recession or the continued plunge of the financial market due to epidemics. Experts believe that this epidemic is in contradiction with the background of the global crisis, and it is difficult to trigger a sustained crisis.How to deal with shock?The agency expects that the Fed may be in the 2008 financial crisis in 2008, countries choose to implement loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, the Fed enters the interest rate cut cycle and implements an expanded loosening policy, and the seven major global growth rates simultaneously reduce interest rates and deposit reserve ratios.Start a 4 trillion investment plan.The impact of this epidemic on global demand has already emerged.The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 1% -1 last Tuesday.25%, the market’s expectation of further easing of the Fed continues to heat up. CME Fed observations show that the market expects the Fed to replace 0 on March 17-18.25% -0.5% is expected to reach 85%; replace 0-0 on April 28-29.25% is expected to reach 46.5%.International agencies expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by 0 before July this year.In addition to the Fed, Australia, Malaysia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Canada have gradually decided to cut interest rates.Wang Qing believes that global preliminary expectations are entering a new round of easing.The epidemic situation has exceeded 100 countries, and the macroeconomics of various countries are generally facing the direct impact of the epidemic; gradually, after the major economies are upgraded, the epidemic will be replaced by the industry chain to the world.This means that even if the country’s epidemic situation is controllable, it still faces the risk of rapid downside of short-term internal economic growth, and macro policies are needed to hedge.But the Fed has cut interest rates two more times to reach zero interest rates, while Europe, Japan and other countries have negative interest rates. How much room and effect can monetary policy have?Wang Qing said that the future impact of the epidemic on the global economy will mainly lead to the number and duration of new cases in large economies. Monetary easing may replace the impact intensity of the epidemic on the macro economy. After financial conditions have been relaxed, micro-entities such as enterprisesSurvival and operational capabilities will be improved, and total macroeconomic demand will be supported.However, considering the global monetary policy space is common after the global financial crisis, the next step of fiscal policy may be further strengthened, mainly including measures such as expansion of epidemic prevention expenditures and targeted tax cuts.How will China respond?Prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and moderation. China has temporarily not followed up on interest rate cuts.Pan Xiangdong pointed out that, for the sake of sound monetary policy, more attention should be paid to flexibility and moderation.So far, most of the conventional monetary policies are structural policies, which provide special credit lines for industries resisted by the epidemic, private and small and micro enterprises; adjust and improve corporate repayment and interest payment arrangements, increase loan extension, renew the loan, and appropriately reduce and exempt small loansMicro-enterprise loan interest rate; selective financial inclusion and targeted reduction of standards.In the next millennium, growth may continue to cut interest rates and standards, or even rule out lowering the benchmark deposit rate.The epidemic is now developing rapidly overseas. The epidemic will drag on the global economy and will in turn affect the Chinese economy.Zhongtai Securities Research pointed out that looking back on the international financial crisis, net exports dragged China’s GDP growth rate up to 3 in 2009.9 averages.According to the impact of the international financial crisis, if the GDP growth rate is included in the target 5.Between 5-6%, it means that investment and consumption will drive GDP growth to reach 9.4-9.9 averages.If only a 4-5% growth rate can be achieved in the first quarter, the pressure in the second and fourth quarters will be significantly amplified.Pan Xiangdong said that due to the different medical conditions in various countries, the attitudes and methods of responding to the epidemic are different, and the uncertainty of overseas epidemic situation has increased significantly.If overseas economies adopt similar isolation methods as China, the future overseas economic data may also decline as deeply as China ‘s PMI in February, and even this decline may take longer.Therefore, although the domestic economic supply capacity is recovering, the contradictory downward pressure on external demand in the future may cause a secondary shock to the domestic economy.In terms of domestic macro-policy, in addition to monetary policy, the proactive fiscal policy should be further active and promising. The scale of PSL investment may be expanded, and the scale of local special debt issuance may be expanded; a staged and targeted tax and fee reduction policy is also required, And does not exclude the issuance of special government bonds.In addition, we must play a key role in effective investment through infrastructure.In terms of industrial policy, we must accelerate economic transformation, and some traditional industries have been hit by breakthroughs. Emerging industries such as intelligent manufacturing, unmanned distribution, online consumption, and healthcare have shown strong growth potential.Sauna, Ye Wang Gu Zhijuan editor Li Weijia proofread Chen Diyan